Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 February 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.
The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.
Economists
Zhiwei Zhang
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