First Insights: China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rebounds in March

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan

21 March 2013

First Insights: China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rebounds in March

The HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February, much stronger than expected (Consensus: 50.8; Nomura: 51.0). The 1.3 percentage point (pp) jump in March cannot be explained by seasonal factors alone. Since the HSBC PMI data started in 2005, there have been four years when the lunar new year holiday fell in February; in these years, the PMI rose by an average of 0.6pp in March.

First Insights: China: Fuel price hikes add to inflationary pressures

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan | Nomura
25 February 2013

First Insights: China: Fuel price hikes add to inflationary pressures

China last night announced a hike in gasoline and diesel retail prices, effective today. Increases of 3.5% and 3.8% have been applied, respectively, adding RMB300 and RMB290 to the prices per ton. This is the second major price hike announced in five days – on 20 February we saw the largest hike in the rail freight tariff rate since 2003, which was unusual in terms of timing as tariff hikes in Q1 are not common.

First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 February 2013

First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI

China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.

The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.

Economists
Zhiwei Zhang

Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators

Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
21 December 2012

Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators

· Nomura's China leading indicator fell in November, but we expect it to pickup in December (Bloomberg ticker: NMEICLI).

· Our heatmap continues to improve, with 67% of indicators positive in November, up from a revised 65% in October.

· We expect growth momentum to continue to build, and maintain our above-consensus GDP forecasts for 4Q and Q1 2013.